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THE ANXIOUS PREPPER
Friday Edition | April 18, 2025
![]() | THIN ICE 🧊 Welcome back, everyone. Since Wednesday, there’s been a subtle shift in how things are unfolding. China and Trump are showing openness on trade, but nothing is final. The U.S. may step back from Ukraine talks. A shooting at FSU highlights the danger of unsecured firearms. And drought is spreading fast, setting the stage for an early fire season. Also, with Easter weekend ahead, stay mindful of public spaces and stay sharp.. The Anxiety Forecast? Anxious but prepared! Scroll down and catch up. |
LOCK IT UP!

Whether you’re in law enforcement or a civilian household, safe storage is critical. Use biometric safes or keyed locks, and do not assume a gun is secure just because it is out of sight. Just as important, check in on the mental health of those around you. Safety starts with awareness, not just equipment.
In the U.S., an estimated 15% of households with children store firearms both loaded and unlocked. That is not just a statistic. It is a preventable risk.
Top Stories
Trump Softens Tariff Threats, Delays TikTok Deal
President Trump said he may ease or pause new tariffs on Chinese goods, warning that higher prices could hurt American consumers. He also delayed enforcement of the TikTok ban, tying it directly to ongoing trade talks. TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, is based in China and has been ordered to sell its U.S. operations to an American firm.
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WHY IT MATTERS
This comes after China signaled it was open to talks, but only on its terms. Trump appears to be softening his approach in response to market backlash and growing concern over inflation. By linking TikTok to the tariff discussions, he’s gambling that economic concessions might unlock a larger deal. So far, the situation has been volatile and unpredictable, with rapid shifts in tone and policy. If talks stall again, both tech and trade tensions could quickly escalate.
Deputy’s Son Kills Two in FSU Campus Shooting
A 20-year-old student opened fire near the student union at Florida State University on Thursday, killing two people and injuring four others before being shot by police. The suspect, Phoenix Ikner, is the son of a Leon County sheriff’s deputy and used one of her personal firearms, a former service weapon she purchased from the department. The two victims killed were not students.
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WHY IT MATTERS
The weapon used in the shooting belonged to the suspect’s mother, a sheriff’s deputy. It was her former service weapon, legally purchased from the department and kept as a personal firearm. Under Florida Statute 790.174, gun owners must secure firearms if a minor could access them. If that access leads to injury or death, felony charges can apply under Statute 784.05. With over 100 school-related shootings already this year, and public places continuing to be targeted, this case is a hard reminder. Safe storage is only one piece—so is paying attention to who has access and what they may be carrying emotionally. Awareness saves lives.
U.S. May Abandon Ukraine Peace Talks Within Days
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. could walk away from peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine if no progress is made in the coming days. Talks have stalled since February, and Rubio made clear that the Trump administration does not plan to invest more time without results. At the same time, the U.S. and Ukraine signed a new memorandum focused on rare-earth minerals and economic rebuilding, though Trump has voiced frustration with Ukrainian leadership.
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WHY IT MATTERS
This signals a shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine as Russia’s offensive continues. The U.S. has allocated nearly $183 billion to Ukraine since 2022, and Trump is now pushing to recoup some of that through economic deals like the new minerals agreement. His rocky relationship with Zelenskyy and demand for financial return are shaping how these talks play out. If the U.S. steps back, the EU may be forced to take on a larger role, which could strain resources and unity. For Ukraine, the stakes are rising and the path to peace is growing more uncertain.
Market Watch

Energy & Commodities
Oil prices have experienced volatility this week. WTI crude closed at $64.68, up 3.5% on Thursday due to new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and proposed OPEC+ production cuts. Despite this uptick, prices remain down nearly 10% since early April, reflecting ongoing trade tensions and weakening global demand. Goldman Sachs projects Brent to average $63 per barrel in 2025, with further declines possible into next year.
Essential Goods & Food Supply
Grocery prices continued to rise in March, with the food index increasing by 0.4%. Eggs reached a record high of $6.23 per dozen, driven by bird flu outbreaks affecting poultry farms. Beef, chicken, and milk prices also saw increases, while produce prices dipped slightly. With food tariffs still in place, elevated costs may persist through the summer unless conditions change.
Financial Policy & Household Impact
Inflation cooled to 2.4% in March, marking the first monthly drop in nearly five years. However, the Federal Reserve is maintaining current interest rates, awaiting greater clarity on the economic impacts of tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for patience, noting that the consequences of tariffs and associated policies are still evolving and might be more substantial than previously expected.
Terrain Shift

AREA CHECK đź§
Drought Expands in the West and South, Fire Risks Growing
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor shows continued expansion of drought conditions across the South, Southwest, and interior West. While parts of the Northeast saw improvement thanks to steady rainfall, areas like South Florida, Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado are seeing worsening drought, with some regions now facing extreme or even exceptional levels.
In California, Arizona, and New Mexico, temperatures have been well above normal—6 to 12 degrees higher in many places. That heat, paired with dry air, is rapidly depleting soil moisture and streamflow. In Texas, water systems in places like San Antonio are entering Stage 3 and 4 restrictions, and reservoir levels near Del Rio are approaching record lows. More than 700 wildfires have already burned over 60,000 acres nationwide this year, a number well above the seasonal average for April.
Even if you’re not in a drought zone, the effects can still reach you. When key agricultural regions dry out, it can lead to higher food prices, tighter water access, stressed energy grids, and poor air quality from wildfire smoke. These impacts don’t stay local. As summer approaches, more households will feel it through rising grocery bills, smoky skies, and increased pressure on basic resources.
SEE YOU MONDAY!
Thanks for reading. If it was useful, send it to someone who should be tracking this stuff. New here? Subscribe below to get the next drop. I’ll be back Monday with fresh updates and real-world signals to help you stay ahead. Stay sharp. Stay aware.