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No Peace in Ukraine + Ex-FBI Chief Investigated
Friday Edition | May 16, 2025
![]() | Welcome back! It’s Friday, May 16th Trump is doubling down on tariffs, skipping negotiations in favor of direct action that could shake up global supply chains. Overseas, Ukraine’s push for more pressure on Russia comes as ceasefire talks collapse, and at home, a cryptic social media post has reignited political tensions at the highest level. Meanwhile, extreme heat and weakened emergency systems are stretching states just as hurricane season approaches. The Anxiety Forecast? Calm headlines, deeper fault lines. Scroll down to catch up. |

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Top Stories
Trump Resumes Tariff Push After Market Backlash
Donald Trump says the U.S. will bypass trade negotiations and instead send letters to dozens of countries outlining new tariff rates on goods imported into the U.S. He claims the U.S. lacks the time or capacity to negotiate individual deals, and that the Treasury and Commerce Departments will begin issuing notices within weeks. This follows backlash over his sweeping April 2nd tariff plan, which included a universal 10% tax on all imports. Although some tariffs have been paused, like with China and the UK, Trump now appears poised to reassert control through direct action.
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WHY IT MATTERS
Walmart says prices are rising this month due to tariffs, and that may just be the start. Trump’s team is bypassing trade talks and will set new rates directly, even as some tariffs were paused after bond market backlash. There’s a 90-day freeze with China, and deals with the UK and EU are in progress, but the 10% universal tariff still holds. If more countries push back, markets could react again. For consumers and business owners, this creates real uncertainty. Costs may rise, supply chains may shift, and financial pressure could build fast.
Ukraine Rallies Allies After Ceasefire Talks Collapse
Ukraine and Russia met for the first time in over three years, but talks ended in less than two hours with no ceasefire agreement. Russia demanded Ukraine surrender territory, which Kyiv called unacceptable. Both sides agreed to a prisoner swap involving 1,000 fighters, but little else was resolved. Ukraine is now pushing for tighter sanctions and more pressure from Western allies, especially if Russia rejects Trump’s proposed 30-day ceasefire. Russia claims it wants peace but says Ukraine could use a pause to regroup and rearm, raising doubts about Moscow’s intentions.
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WHY IT MATTERS
The war is dragging on, and the costs are piling up. Russia is still making gains in eastern Ukraine, and missile strikes continue even during peace talks. Ukraine is calling for tougher action, while Trump is under fire for missing his promised 30-day deadline to end the war. News outlets and critics are questioning whether his strategy has any real leverage. With no ceasefire in place, energy prices remain volatile, food exports from Ukraine are still disrupted, and taxpayer-funded military aid keeps rising. For families already stretched thin, this means higher utility bills, more expensive groceries, and the growing risk of deeper U.S. involvement abroad.
Trump Officials Launch Investigation into Comey’s Instagram Post
The Trump administration has opened an investigation into former FBI Director James Comey over an Instagram post featuring seashells arranged to spell “86 47.” Trump is the 47th president, and “86” is slang that can mean to remove or even kill someone. Comey deleted the post and said he did not intend any threat. Still, Trump and top officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and DNI Tulsi Gabbard, are calling it a threat of violence. Legal experts say the claim has no legal standing and argue that the post is protected speech under the First Amendment.
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WHY IT MATTERS
Comey’s post was cryptic. The numbers “86 47” carry layered meaning, and for someone who once led the FBI, it probably wasn’t the smartest move. Still, calling it a direct threat feels like a stretch. But with previous assassination attempts on Trump’s life, his reaction isn’t entirely out of the question. Their feud goes back to 2017, when Trump fired Comey during the Russia investigation after reportedly demanding loyalty. Since then, the tension has been personal. Now, it’s spilling back into the spotlight in a way that makes the whole political climate feel more chaotic than ever.

Why it Matters:
Oil rose as hopes for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal created uncertainty about future supply levels. A finalized deal could release more Iranian oil into the market, while failure could tighten supply and drive prices higher. Gold fell after the U.S. and China agreed to pause trade retaliation for 90 days, increasing investor confidence and reducing demand for safe-haven assets. The dollar ticked up slightly as strong economic data and expectations of delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts signaled resilience in U.S. markets. These shifts highlight growing pressure around global supply chains, trade stability, and monetary policy.
Terrain Watch

Heavy rainfall brought major drought relief to the South, Southeast, and parts of the Northeast, where totals reached up to 10 inches in places like Louisiana, Mississippi, and eastern Pennsylvania. Conditions also improved in sections of Texas, Oklahoma, and New Hampshire. But not all regions caught a break. Drought expanded across the Midwest, with Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa seeing worsening soil moisture and streamflows. The High Plains are heating up fast, with western Nebraska now entering extreme drought. Out West, it’s a mixed picture. Parts of Arizona and Utah saw small improvements, but drought worsened in Montana, New Mexico, and the Pacific Northwest. Hawaii saw gains on some islands, while the Northern Marianas are now facing wildfire conditions. Alaska and Puerto Rico remain in the clear, for now.
News Highlights
FEMA has reduced in person training for emergency managers just weeks before hurricane season begins. The changes follow staffing cuts and new travel restrictions under the Trump administration, which is pushing to shrink the agency. Training that would normally happen through direct sessions has moved online, raising concerns about how well storm-prone communities will be prepared. Emergency officials say weaker coordination and limited access to updated forecasting tools could leave vulnerable areas at greater risk.
Texas is experiencing record-breaking heat with temperatures reaching up to 111°F, making parts of the state hotter than Death Valley. This early-season heatwave is putting pressure on hospitals and pushing the power grid to a new May record as air conditioning demand spikes. Scientists say climate change is fueling more frequent and intense heatwaves. The National Weather Service is urging residents to stay cool, stay hydrated, and avoid extended time outdoors.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture says it will reinstate climate-related webpages that were removed after Trump’s inauguration. The reversal comes in response to a lawsuit claiming the deletions violated public access laws. Pages on climate-smart farming, clean energy, and rural conservation had been taken down as funding freezes took effect. The USDA now says it will comply with federal transparency rules and restore the content within two weeks.
Why it Matters:
Across the country, warning signs are becoming harder to ignore. In the South and along the East Coast, extreme heat and unpredictable rainfall are already putting pressure on power grids, local infrastructure, and emergency systems. FEMA has pulled back on in-person support, which could leave some communities less prepared as hurricane season begins. In Washington, climate data is only being restored after lawsuits forced the issue. While some regions are seeing drought relief, others are falling deeper into dry conditions with limited time to respond.
SEE YOU MONDAY!
Thanks for reading. If this helped you make sense of what’s happening, consider sharing it with someone who might find it useful. I’ll be back Monday with more updates to help you stay informed, safe, and prepared. Subscribe below to get the next edition.