CRACKS IN THE GLOBAL ORDER

U.S POLICY

TARRIFS

President Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports with no exemptions, reviving a protectionist trade stance. While aimed at China, the tariffs will also hit major suppliers like Canada, Mexico, and the EU, raising costs for U.S. manufacturers and consumers. The move echoes the 2018 tariffs, which briefly boosted U.S. steel production but triggered a trade war and retaliatory measures.

The European Union vowed retaliation, calling the tariffs “unjustified” and warning of proportionate countermeasures. Meanwhile, Trump has proposed a broader “reciprocal tariff” policy, aiming to match duties imposed by other nations, potentially escalating tensions with China, Japan, South Korea, and the EU. While this move is meant to level the playing field, it risks inflation, strained alliances, and a global trade war. Trump insists the plan is about fairness but acknowledges prices could rise in the short term. With negotiations still possible, global markets are watching closely.

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LESSON IN HISTORY

Trump’s 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs had far-reaching consequences beyond trade disputes. In housing and construction, rising steel costs led to higher building expenses, making homes and infrastructure projects more expensive. Manufacturers reliant on steel and aluminum faced higher production costs, reducing competitiveness and leading to job losses. A Federal Reserve study found the tariffs led to a 0.6% drop in manufacturing jobs, equating to 75,000 fewer positions. While U.S. steel production saw a temporary boost, higher costs and employment declines in other sectors outweighed the gains.

GEOPOLITICS

TRUMPS STANCE ON GAZA

Hamas has confirmed plans to release Israeli hostages on Saturday, after initially delaying the exchange over allegations that Israel was blocking aid to Gaza. Israel warned that failure to release hostages would terminate the ceasefire, with Prime Minister Netanyahu ordering troop reinforcements near Gaza. President Trump echoed the threats, warning that “all hell will break out” if Hamas does not comply.

Meanwhile, Trump’s controversial proposal to “take over” Gaza and remove its 2 million Palestinian residents has sparked global condemnation, further straining diplomatic relations. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit the Middle East to push for hostage releases and counter Iran’s influence. In the West Bank, UNICEF reports that 13 Palestinian children have been killed this year as Israeli forces continue operations. The ceasefire remains fragile, with Lebanon rejecting Israel’s intent to remain in parts of its territory past the withdrawal deadline.

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LESSON IN HISTORY

History shows forced displacement and military takeovers often fuel prolonged conflict. From the Nakba in 1948 to Israel’s 1982 Lebanon invasion, past efforts to reshape borders have led to long-term instability and resistance movements. If Trump’s Gaza plan moves forward, it risks deepening tensions and further destabilizing the region. Without addressing root causes, history suggests the cycle is likely to continue.

POLITICS

RFK JR. NEW HEALTH SECRETARY

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) in a 52-48 Senate vote, despite strong Democratic opposition over his anti-vaccine views. While he assured lawmakers he would not interfere with current vaccine policies, public health officials remain skeptical. His confirmation comes as a measles outbreak in Texas underscores the stakes of vaccine hesitancy.

Trump also signed an executive order launching the “Make America Healthy Again” Commission, which aims to reshape public health policy. Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, has reportedly begun evaluating massive budget and staff cuts at HHS, potentially affecting Medicare, Medicaid, the CDC, and the NIH. Kennedy has signaled support for a shift in research priorities, including firing 600 NIH scientists and redirecting funds away from infectious disease studies. With sweeping changes ahead, the future of U.S. healthcare policy remains uncertain.

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THE ROAD AHEAD

The concern is that Kennedy’s leadership could reshape U.S. healthcare in unpredictable ways. If NIH cuts and shifts in research priorities move forward, future pandemic preparedness and medical innovation may suffer. With Musk’s DOGE program targeting budgets, reduced funding for Medicare and Medicaid could lead to long-term instability in public health programs. Whether these changes bring efficiency or create deeper vulnerabilities will define the future of U.S. healthcare as we know it.

GLOBAL POLICY

U.S DISTANCING FROM UKRAINE

This week Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sparked controversy by stating that Ukraine should not expect NATO membership or a full return to its pre-2014 borders, aligning with President Trump’s push for negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. While later walking back his remarks, Hegseth reaffirmed that Trump alone will decide what Ukraine can “allow or not allow.” Critics argue this weakens Ukraine’s leverage before talks even begin.

Meanwhile, European leaders insist on having a seat at the table, warning that any U.S.-brokered deal without Europe will fail. Ukraine has also rejected any agreement reached without its involvement. Hegseth hinted that future U.S. aid to Ukraine may be tied to its willingness to negotiate, raising concerns about long-term support. Additionally, Trump is pressuring NATO allies to increase defense spending beyond the agreed 2% of GDP, pushing for contributions of 4–5% to shift more security responsibility to Europe.

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THE ROAD AHEAD

The concern is that scaling back U.S. support weakens Ukraine’s position, forcing concessions that strengthen Russia’s control. This could push Europe toward greater defense independence, reshaping NATO’s future. But if the U.S. faces a future crisis, allies who felt abandoned may hesitate to support American interests, straining long-term alliances. Whether this shift leads to a stronger Europe or a fractured NATO remains uncertain.