China Offers Tariff Relief+ Trump Willing to Hand Over Crimea

Friday Edition | April 25, 2025

Author

Prepper Perry
April 25, 2025

Welcome Back!

It’s Friday! China is easing up on tariffs, and Trump has openly declared that Crimea “will stay with Russia”—a major shift in U.S. foreign policy. At home, fire season is starting early. Florida is battling nearly 100 wildfires, and New Jersey just saw its largest blaze in almost two decades.

The Anxiety Forecast? Steady, but watching the edge.

Scroll down to catch up.

Top Stories 

China Offers Tariff Relief, but It’s Not a Truce


China is granting select exemptions to its 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and asking companies to list critical goods they can’t source elsewhere, such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace parts. The move comes after softer remarks from Trump, but both sides remain far from an agreement. Beijing says it won’t consider a deal unless the U.S. drops its 145% tariffs. Chinese officials are quietly collecting exemption requests from over 80 foreign firms to ease business pressure.

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WHY IT MATTERS

China’s selective tariff exemptions highlight the economic strain both nations are feeling. While China is easing pressure at home by lifting tariffs on key U.S. imports like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, the U.S. faces its own supply chain issues and inflation risks. These moves suggest both sides are trying to prevent deeper fallout, even as formal negotiations remain stalled.

Trump Backs Russian Control of Crimea Amid Ceasefire Talks


Trump told Time magazine that Crimea “will stay with Russia,” calling it a long-settled issue and accusing Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy of delaying peace by refusing to negotiate. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow again, their fourth meeting since February. Despite Trump publicly criticizing Russian strikes on Kyiv that killed 12 people, Russia launched over 100 drones across five regions. Meanwhile, a senior Russian general was killed by a car bomb near Moscow, the second targeted assassination of a high-ranking officer in recent months.

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WHY IT MATTERS

Trump is pushing for a ceasefire that could end with Ukraine giving up land, which would break from years of U.S. policy. A pullback in American support would weaken Ukraine’s defense and reshape the balance of power in Europe. The assassination of a Russian general shows that covert operations inside Russia may be escalating, even as formal negotiations remain uncertain.

Market Watch

Energy & Commodities

Oil (WTI):

West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at $62.81 per barrel, down approximately 1.89% today. The decline reflects growing concerns over potential oversupply after Kazakhstan announced it would prioritize domestic production over OPEC+ output limits. This decision has added pressure to a market already uncertain about global demand recovery.

Gold:

Gold prices have dropped to $3,286 per ounce, retreating from earlier highs near $3,500. The pullback is largely due to easing economic tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump’s softer stance on trade has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while a stronger U.S. dollar has further weighed on prices.

Currency

The dollar index is currently at 99.65, showing a modest increase. The upward move is linked to optimism around U.S.–China trade talks and reassurance in financial markets after President Trump walked back his threats to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. A stronger dollar is also being supported by steady economic data and reduced investor anxiety.

Why it Matters:

Markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by shifting trade policies and economic indicators. Oil is under pressure due to oversupply fears, gold is cooling as global risk sentiment improves, and the dollar is strengthening alongside growing confidence in U.S. policy direction. These movements suggest early shifts in the cost of essentials like fuel and imports. If supply chains tighten or inflation rebounds, prices at the consumer level could follow quickly.

Note: Prices reflect conditions as of Friday morning and may shift throughout the day.

Terrain Watch

Climate & Weather Highlights

Musk’s xAI Under Fire for Air Pollution: Elon Musk’s AI company xAI is being investigated for allegedly operating over 30 un-permitted methane gas turbines at its Memphis data center, raising major concerns about air quality in nearby communities. A public hearing is scheduled for today.

Florida Wildfires Escalate: Nearly 100 wildfires are burning across Florida, scorching over 3,800 acres as extreme drought spreads across the state, with little rain expected anytime soon.Midwest Gets Relief:

New Jersey Wildfire Grows to 13,250 Acres: The Jones Road Fire is now 50% contained and may become the state’s largest wildfire in nearly two decades. Over 1,000 structures were threatened, and more than 5,000 residents evacuated due to dry conditions and high winds.

Drought Snapshot

32.9% of the continental U.S. is experiencing moderate drought or worse.

Florida, the Carolinas, and East Texas are seeing worsening conditions.

Midwest and Great Lakes areas improved after multiple heavy storms.

Southwest drought remains severe, especially in New Mexico and Arizona.

What’s Moving (Outlook + Risk Signals)

More rain is forecast for the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and New England over the next 5 days.

Dry zones remain locked in across Central Florida, Southern California, and the Four Corners region.

Warming temperatures along the East Coast and South are expected to continue into next week—raising early-season fire risk and water stress.

What It Means

This week’s wildfire in New Jersey and rising fire activity in Florida are signs of growing instability across the U.S. While heavy storms gave the Midwest some breathing room, the Southeast and Southwest are still drying out fast. Drought is expanding, streamflows are dropping, and high temperatures are settling in. The terrain is splitting—some regions are recovering, but others are stacking up risks that could hit water access, food production, and local infrastructure as early as May.

Every Friday, we track the top weather, drought, and environmental shifts that shape our terrain. Stay ahead of the patterns and prep for changes before they hit home.

SEE YOU MONDAY!

Thanks for reading. If this helped you make sense of what’s happening, consider sharing it with someone who might find it useful. I’ll be back Monday with more updates to help you stay informed, safe, and prepared. Subscribe below to get the next edition.